The Cro Capital Report

Good morning, and welcome to the first edition of The Cro Capital Report, your go-to analysis of markets, energy trends, and our portfolio strategy.

Markets at a Glance

Figure 1: Month-over-month economic Indicators (April 22-May 22, 2025)

• S&P 500: $5,842.01/share — ↑8.67%

• VIX (Volatility): 20.28 — ↓ 33.66%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.535% ↑ 22.4 bps (↑ 0.224%)

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): $99.66 — ↑ 0.19%

• Crude Oil Futures: $60.80/barrel — ↑ 0.11%

• Copper Futures: $4.66 — ↓ 4.49%

• Gold Price: $3,301/ounce — ↓ 1.42%

• Uranium Price: $70.50/lb — ↑ 7.39%

Amid concerns over trade imbalances and a slowing domestic economy, a major de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions have caused the S&P 500 to surge 8.67% over the past month, while the VIX has dropped 33.66%, reflecting reduced market volatility. Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields have spiked, with the 10-year yield up 22.4 basis points since this time last month. This follows a weak 20-year Treasury auction, where low demand pushed yields higher. The move suggests investors are pricing in persistent inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and growing concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and deficits.

At the same time, a strengthening dollar may reflect investor optimism that inflation is cooling without triggering a hard landing. Meanwhile, continued inflation remains a real possibility as Congress continues to work on a final budget that increases debt while doing little to rein in federal spending.

Recession risks still loom. The first estimate of Q1 GDP showed a -0.3% annualized decline. If the second estimate (due May 29) confirms this, it would mark the first of two consecutive negative quarters, signaling a recession. (The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.”)

This backdrop raises the stakes for upcoming data releases. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just +0.2% month-over-month and +2.3% year-over-year, suggesting disinflation is gaining traction. If May’s CPI (due June 12) shows further moderation, the Fed may be positioned to cut rates by late summer or early fall—especially if labor markets remain stable.

Jobs data remains resilient. April’s Employment Report showed 177,000 new jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate. The next release, due June 6, will be critical for the Fed’s next move.

Tariffs are also back in focus as the National Retail Federation warns they may severely impact Main Street businesses.

In short: markets are rallying on optimism, but macro conditions are fragile. Investors should remain focused on inflation prints, labor data, and whether GDP revisions confirm a slowdown or hint at stabilization.

Main Feature: Uranium as an Energy Source

Cro Capital remains bullish on uranium due to strong fundamentals and rising demand. Supply still lags reactor needs, and new mines are slow to start. China is rapidly expanding, and the U.S., with bipartisan support, has reaffirmed nuclear as a strategic priority. Tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta are backing new microreactors to meet data-center demand, aiming to triple global capacity by 2050. Sprott CEO John Ciampaglia calls it a “global nuclear renaissance” driven by clean energy and AI needs.

• Rising Prices & Demand– Uranium peaked at $107 (Feb 2024) before stabilizing at $65–$70, up 7.39% in the past month. Tight supply and strong utility demand support prices. Nuclear’s reliability and low emissions suit AI’s rising energy needs, with Goldman projecting 160% growth in data center usage by 2030.

• Russian Supply Ban– Congress banned Russian uranium (27% of U.S. supply) in late 2024. In response, $2.7B was allocated to boost domestic production.

Cro Capital Portfolio Summary

Through May 22, our portfolio is up +2.51% YTD, well ahead of the S&P 500 (-0.45%). This outperformance stems from tactical bets and our clean energy sector focus.

URA (Global X Uranium ETF) added Apr 7 is up +24.37%, reinforcing our high-conviction uranium thesis. Price momentum and policy tailwinds continue to favor domestic miners and long-term upside in the sector.

TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares) added Apr 28 is up +9.41%, driven by improving sentiment around small caps, easing U.S.-China trade tensions, and notable insider buying—most prominently, Rep. Tim Moore’s large-scale purchases ahead of the May 12 tariff pause.

Figure 2 above highlights the strong correlation between the uranium spot price and URA. As global demand for uranium accelerates, we anticipate continued upward pressure on spot prices. Given URA’s historical responsiveness to these price movements, we view it as a high-conviction vehicle for long-term capital appreciation.

We also hold SPXS, IEUR, VNQ, SPLG, IYK, and VIG for diversification. We'll continue monitoring market trends and policy shifts to sustain alpha.

Other Themes We’re Tracking

Beyond uranium, we’re closely watching emerging dynamics across critical materials, macro policy shifts, and energy infrastructure.

Rare earth metals are rising in strategic importance. The U.S. is actively securing supply agreements with Ukraine, the EU, and UAE to support small modular reactors and data infrastructure. With AI driving a surge in energy demand, these materials are quickly becoming as essential as semiconductors.

While Cro Capital is not currently investing in rare earth metals, two companies to watch are REEMF (backed by General Atomics) and MP Materials. It’s important to note that MP has some Chinese investment exposure despite its "All-American" branding.

We're also tracking:
• Rare earth logistics and U.S.-led material partnerships
• Options flow and technical setup in UEC (a URA holding)
• Resilient small-cap momentum amid soft macro data
• China’s reactor expansion and global nuclear policy shifts

As trade deals and energy needs evolve, we’re refining our positioning across nuclear, metals, and domestic growth themes. Expect more next week as we continue tracking the edge.

Thanks for reading The Cro Capital Report.
— The Cro Capital Team

*The information provided in The Cro Capital Report is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. The views expressed are those of Cro Capital and are subject to change at any time without notice. While we strive to ensure accuracy, we make no representations or warranties as to the completeness or reliability of the content. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.